power and influence, and some folks like Alden and Dalio have been publishing analyses - based on data and/or pattern recognition - that seem to support the same view. Through my entire lifetime, I've noticed factors that seem to indicate a decline in U.S. I'm actually surprised how much Alden's views seem to dovetail with Ray Dalio's analysis in his latest book The Changing World Order, which also impressed me. Naturally, I don't know what the next 50 years will hold, and neither does anyone else.īut I can't help but be impressed with what I've read from Lyn Alden. Since I'm in my early 30s now, I expect to have a time frame of approx. I keep costs minimal and shun trading, and I try to maintain a long-term view. I'm a Boglehead who largely follows the recommendations of Mr. Pretty much the same spot I find myself in. On the other hand, we have folks saying her work is highly impressive and detailed. We have folks saying that forecasting/market timing is foolish and useless. I've found it interesting that we have such a variety of responses on this topic. Too many here tackle that topic without a proper understanding of the definition and relation between asset, monetary and consumer price inflation. I should also add that her piece on inflation is a must read. Not your traditional finance/econ background but these days it's the quality of work that counts and she's a super star. She's one of the sharpest, most rational and data-driven economic thinkers out there. But to me, her macroeconomic analysis seems helpful. Please note: I don't plan to trade individual stocks. Is anybody here familiar with her work?Įxample: I found this one really helpful, though it's also quite long. Her analyses strike me as detailed and logical, but there's a whole lot I don't know, so I figured I'd check with some folks with more expertise than me. I've been reading some pieces on Lyn Alden's investing website. But I'm extremely slow to act, so any responses here are helpful to me. Hence, the possible value of information like Ms. However, I'm not making trades or doing things to generate expenses and incur taxation-so in my mind, it's not the same thing. I suppose that could be considered market timing. For example, I bought VTSAX during the depths of the pandemic (because stocks were undervalued, and the 1-year returns have been astonishing), but my opinion is that the market rebounded too high and too fast for the fundamentals to justify.Īs a result of my belief that the US stock market is showing some bubble-like characteristics, I'm currently tilting my 401k contributions toward international *for new contributions only.* I plan to practice buy-and-hold, BUT I reserve the right to make occasional tactical adjustments based on forward-looking returns. Bogle's company, so of course, fees are low on all of them. My personal investments (taxable brokerage acct) are with Mr. My own portfolio actually consists of a total US stock market index, a total US bond market index, and ~5% each in a small-cap value index, emerging markets fund, and international value index fund. Here's my thinking: I seek to gather voluminous information before making any changes. Interesting-thanks for the input so far! I seek diverging opinions because it helps me challenge my own biases.
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